EASTORA ANALYSIS | For decades, Israel could rely on Washington for one thing: military support, regardless of which party held power. Tuesday’s election has put that certainty in question on both sides of the aisle.
Democrats have captured the House and Senate in an election shaped partly by anger over the US-Israeli war with Iran. Many incoming lawmakers oppose unconditional aid. Republicans, too, face unrest among voters drawn to Donald Trump’s “America First” promises.
On Wednesday, Vice President JD Vance shared a pollster’s advice for winning back Trump voters, including “Change our relationship to Israel,” alongside ending the war and addressing inflation.
Billions are at stake. Israel receives roughly $3.8 billion a year under a ten-year US security agreement running through 2028. Trump said this week he had agreed with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end annual assistance, though the agreement and Congress complicate an early cutoff.
The divide was visible before the vote. In September, 46 of 47 Senate Democrats backed a demand for an administration report on violence by Israeli settlers against Palestinians in the West Bank. Republicans blocked it. A June Quinnipiac poll found 66% of Democrats thought Washington was too supportive of Israel, up from 20% in 2017. Democrats can now summon officials, examine arms transfers and scrutinize aid.
Senator Chris Van Hollen, who has sought conditions on military assistance, put the principle plainly: “There should not be an Israel exception.”
But control of Congress has limits. Trump can veto legislation, and Democrats lack the votes to override him alone. Hearings and investigations may expose decisions without reversing them.
Israel faces uncertainty, too. Netanyahu lost his governing majority in October’s Israeli election, leaving coalition talks unresolved. Washington could enter January with a new Congress while Israel is still deciding who will lead it.
The alliance has weathered generations of political change. Its next test may be whether either American party can still agree on what that alliance should cost — and what it should permit.