EASTORA REPORT | Antony Blinken believes an agreement to end the war with Iran may require something Washington has been reluctant to offer: concessions to Tehran. The former U.S. secretary of state warned that force alone could not reliably secure the Strait of Hormuz.
At a Jewish Federations of North America gathering in Washington on Sunday, November 8, Blinken warned that eliminating Iran’s ability to threaten shipping through military action would require a major escalation.
“Iran can hold at risk ships going through the Strait as long as they want,” he said. For Blinken, the prospect of further strikes carried a danger of escalation without a guarantee that ships would be safe.
Blinken pointed instead to a negotiated settlement. “Any resolution, if it’s a diplomatic one, is probably going to have to give the Iranians something: sanctions relief, something from the Strait itself,” he said. He called those possibilities preferable to escalating the conflict.
Across the stage, former secretary of state Mike Pompeo offered the opposite answer. He urged continued economic and military pressure and rejected concessions for safe passage. “We should never give the Iranians a damn thing,” Pompeo said. Pompeo served Trump; Blinken served Joe Biden. Neither man holds office or speaks for the Trump administration.
The stakes are already evident. The United States has blockaded Iranian ports, while Tehran has restricted traffic through Hormuz, a route that carried about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade before the war. Iran wants the blockade lifted and sanctions eased before broader nuclear talks resume.
Mediators have explored a phased exchange: Iran would restore navigation while Washington eased restrictions. Yet both governments have resisted making the first move, and indirect discussions have produced no breakthrough.
Blinken did not say what precise terms Washington should accept. His central warning was that trying to remove Iran’s leverage through force could bring a much wider war, while negotiations could demand concessions Washington dislikes.