When five Russian ballistic missiles were launched toward Kyiv on Monday night, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Ukraine received no advance warning from its partners. By the next morning, the question in Kyiv was no longer only how the missiles had reached the capital, but why a warning system Ukraine has come to rely on appeared to have gone silent at the moment it was needed.
American officials told their Ukrainian counterparts that bad weather had disrupted the system used to detect Russian missile launches, according to CBS News. Ukrainian officials did not accept that explanation. Several sources familiar with the matter told the network they believed the interruption may have been deliberate, while stressing that the United States had not stopped intelligence sharing with Ukraine as a whole.
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| A U.S. Space Force SBIRS satellite used as part of the United States’ space-based missile-warning network. Photo credit: U.S. Space Force. Licence: Public Domain. |
The White House has not said that intelligence was deliberately withheld. Donald Trump denied that Washington had stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine, telling reporters that the United States was still helping Kyiv while trying to bring the war to an end.
The night the warning did not come
The missile-warning dispute emerged during a wave of Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure. Zelenskyy said Russia used more than 39 ballistic missiles and more than 120 attack drones and loitering munitions in the overnight assault, with Kyiv and Kharkiv among the areas hit.
Six people were reported killed and about 600,000 were left without electricity as energy facilities were damaged. Reuters reported strikes on dozens of power sites and railway infrastructure across several regions, while Russia’s defence ministry acknowledged attacks on Ukrainian power plants.
Ukraine said it intercepted only four of the 39 missiles launched during the attack. Ballistic missiles leave far less reaction time than slower-moving drones, which means information about a launch can affect when air-defence crews activate systems, how quickly warnings are issued and how much time civilians have to seek shelter.
Ukraine operates its own radars and surveillance systems, but U.S. satellites, aircraft and other sensors provide information that Kyiv cannot fully reproduce on its own. Space-based systems can detect the infrared signature produced by a missile launch and pass data into warning networks before the weapon reaches its target.
That dependence is one reason the missing warning attracted attention inside the Ukrainian government. Zelenskyy had already said publicly that Ukraine received no advance intelligence from its partners before the earlier missile strike on Kyiv, while Ukrainian officials later told CBS they did not believe the explanation that weather had caused the failure.
Washington and Kyiv tell different versions
CBS reported that U.S. officials attributed the interruption to bad weather. Ukrainian officials speaking anonymously because of the sensitivity of the issue said they believed the United States was “playing” with the system.
The report did not establish that an order had been given to switch off the warnings, and no public evidence has emerged identifying a U.S. official who ordered information withheld. The available reporting instead leaves two versions of the same event: Washington’s explanation of a weather-related disruption, and the suspicion among some Ukrainian officials that access to the warning data was restricted.
The dispute also did not emerge in isolation. According to CBS, the United States had failed to provide ballistic-missile intelligence to Ukraine on one earlier occasion this year, when American resources were said to have been redirected toward the Middle East.
That earlier interruption is now part of the questions being asked in Kyiv because this week’s missing warning came during a period when relations with Washington were already under strain.
Intelligence had already become part of the pressure
Days before the Russian strikes, U.S. officials had been pressing Ukraine to stop attacks on Russian oil refineries. Ukraine has used long-range drones against refineries and logistics sites inside Russia, arguing that the facilities help finance and sustain Moscow’s war.
Reports differ over how far Washington went in those discussions. The Financial Times and other outlets reported that Trump administration officials raised the possibility of cutting intelligence sharing if Ukraine continued the refinery campaign, while Reuters, citing people familiar with talks in Miami, reported that the U.S. asked Kyiv to halt the strikes but did not threaten to withdraw support during that meeting.
Reuters later reported that sources had described a threat to suspend intelligence used for early warning if Ukraine continued attacking Russian refineries. Trump, however, publicly denied that intelligence sharing had been stopped.
The distinction between ending all intelligence cooperation and restricting one category of information sits at the heart of the current dispute. CBS sources said U.S.-Ukraine intelligence cooperation continued overall and described the missing missile warning as a specific incident rather than a general cutoff.
For Kyiv, that distinction does not remove the operational problem. If information used to detect an incoming ballistic missile can disappear while the broader intelligence relationship remains formally intact, then the question becomes not simply whether intelligence is being shared, but what information is available, when it is available and under what conditions.
The energy war behind the argument
The intelligence dispute is also tied to a wider disagreement over energy infrastructure. Trump has been pressing Ukraine to stop attacks on Russian oil facilities, arguing that those strikes contribute to higher fuel prices, while his administration has pursued an arrangement with Moscow involving Russian diesel.
The United States also announced what Trump called an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine said it was prepared to halt attacks on Russian energy facilities if Moscow did the same, but Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy sites continued.
The latest attacks damaged power infrastructure in Kyiv and Kharkiv and left hundreds of thousands without electricity. Zelenskyy said Russia’s actions showed that Moscow was not treating Trump’s statements as a restraint on its military operations.
For Ukraine, the issue has therefore become difficult to separate into diplomacy on one side and battlefield support on the other. Washington is asking Kyiv to reduce attacks on Russian energy infrastructure while Ukraine says Russian attacks on its own power system are continuing, and the dispute over missile warnings emerged during that same sequence of events.
Another U.S.-linked system changed at the same time
As Ukrainian officials were asking what had happened to the missile warning, military units were also reporting changes to Starshield, the military version of SpaceX’s Starlink service used by Ukrainian forces.
Ukrainian officials said restrictions imposed on terminals while they were moving affected drone missions, reconnaissance, communications and logistics. The changes were introduced without advance notice, according to Ukrainian officials, and Kyiv began discussions with the United States, SpaceX and NATO partners while testing backup communications.
Reuters and Associated Press also reported the restrictions. Elon Musk said limits on military Starshield speeds and usage were controlled by the U.S. government and military, while Zelenskyy said the restrictions would affect Ukrainian operations.
There is no evidence showing that the Starshield restrictions and the missing missile warnings were ordered as part of one decision. They are separate systems, operated through different channels, but their timing has added to Ukrainian concerns over how much operational control Washington retains over technologies that have become embedded in Ukraine’s defence.
The question Washington has not answered publicly
The evidence available so far does not prove that the United States deliberately withheld warning data before the Russian strike. It does show that Ukraine says no warning arrived, U.S. officials blamed weather, Ukrainian officials rejected that explanation and the system appeared to function again during the next wave of missiles.
It also shows that the incident occurred after Washington had begun pressing Kyiv over strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and while intelligence cooperation itself had become part of negotiations between the two governments.
Trump says the United States continues to share intelligence with Ukraine. Ukrainian officials are not disputing that cooperation exists; their question is narrower. They want to know why, when Russian ballistic missiles were already on their way toward Kyiv, one of the warnings they expected was not there.
That question remains unanswered in public. And for a country where the time between launch and impact can be measured in minutes, the answer is not only about what Washington and Kyiv say to each other. It is about what reaches an air-defence screen before the missile reaches the city.
Sources
CBS News — U.S. may have withheld warnings to Ukraine of Russian strikes that killed 6, cut power to 600,000, sources say
Reuters — Russian strikes kill three, damage dozens of power facilities
Reuters — Ukraine says SpaceX hampers drones for attack and defence, as U.S. ties fray
Reuters — U.S. hopes diesel deal can “soften” Moscow on peace talks, sources say
Associated Press — Zelenskyy says Ukraine received no intelligence from partners about missiles headed to Kyiv
Associated Press — Ukrainian drones are forced to slow down by sudden restrictions on use of Starlink
Financial Times — Trump tells Ukraine to “get a new leader” as U.S. threatens to cut off intelligence-sharing
Financial Times — Ukraine blindsided by Starlink restrictions and intelligence gaps