EASTORA REPORT | European leaders reopened a direct channel to Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, urging him to de-escalate the war in Ukraine ahead of new U.S.-brokered negotiations. Sergei Lavrov’s response from Moscow was considerably darker: the war will continue, and he believes it is moving toward escalation.
“The Ukraine war will continue,” the Russian foreign minister said. “And I would even say that it shows a tendency toward escalation.”
Putin had spoken earlier with Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre in rare calls coordinated with Ukraine. The discussions focused on ending the war, reducing tensions and expected negotiations in Abu Dhabi.
Stubb described his conversation with Putin as frank and substantive. The Kremlin, however, stressed that any settlement would have to fully account for Russia’s security interests, while Lavrov said he saw no fundamental change in Europe’s approach toward Moscow.
The diplomacy is unfolding alongside an unusual revival in U.S.-Russia trade. Washington has temporarily eased restrictions allowing Russian diesel back onto international markets following an Oct. 9 call between Putin and Donald Trump.
Lavrov insisted there was no political bargain behind the arrangement.
“It is a purely business arrangement,” he said, denying that Russia had offered concessions on Ukraine, the Strait of Hormuz or other security issues in exchange.
The contrast captures the state of the relationship. Washington is preparing another diplomatic track with Moscow and Kyiv while Russian fuel moves back toward global markets, yet the Kremlin is giving little indication that it expects the battlefield to quiet down.
As negotiators prepare for Abu Dhabi, Lavrov’s forecast is not peace.
It is a longer, more intense war.